Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)

The reversibility of global mean surface temperature was examined by a transient CO2 reversibility experiment using an Earth system model. The results showed that after CO2 ramp-up toward CO2 quadrupling and ramp-down returned to the present-day level, the global mean surface temperature kept decreasing but stopped to change for ∼40 years in the early net-zero CO2 emission period. This period, referred to a cooling hiatus, resulted from a compensation between Southern Hemisphere cooling and Northern Hemisphere warming. The Northern Hemisphere warming was centered over the North Atlantic. This localized warming was caused by an excessive heat advection by a delayed and surpassed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to CO2 forcing. During the progression of CO2change, the meridional salinity gradient between subtropic and subpolar regions was enhanced, and the oceanic stratification in subpolar North Atlantic was reduced due to accumulated heat and reduced vertical salt import in the deeper ocean. As AMOC started to recover, consequently, the enhanced salt advection feedback and the relaxed buoyant force resulted in AMOC overshoot.

(An et al., 2021)


Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently, more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project. The result from multi-model ensemble shows that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

(Shin et al., 2018)